Ukraine and US Fail to Finalize Rare Earth Minerals Agreement
This past Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump convened in Washington with the intention of signing a deal that would allow the US to tap into Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources. Nevertheless, the session deviated from its intended purpose and concluded with a tense discussion involving Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. After Zelensky’s premature exit, the White House issued a statement confirming that the agreement remained unsigned.
Previously, Zelensky had expressed optimism that this “preliminary” agreement could pave the way for further cooperation. However, he confirmed that Ukraine had yet to secure any security guarantees from the US—one of his key demands. Trump, for his part, argued that such a deal would allow American taxpayers to “recoup their money” from aid provided to Ukraine during the war, but insisted that Europe should take primary responsibility for Kyiv’s security.
Details of the Agreement Terms
On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Kyiv and Washington had finalized a draft of the agreement, which was released on Friday morning. The deal outlined the creation of an “investment fund” to support Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts.
Shmyhal stated that both nations would manage the fund on “equal terms.” Under the agreement, Ukraine would allocate 50% of its future revenue from state-owned mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. The proceeds would then be invested in initiatives aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic growth.
The US, for its part, committed to a sustained financial investment aimed at fostering stability and prosperity in Ukraine, in line with US law. The agreement also specified that the US would hold the largest share of the fund allowed by American rules.
Contentions Regarding Mineral Access and Financial Conditions
The specific terms of the minerals agreement seem to have intensified the friction between Trump and Zelensky. Initially, the US demanded a $500 billion stake in Ukraine’s mineral resources, which Zelensky turned down. It has been reported that this demand was subsequently rescinded.
Tymofiy Mylovanov, who previously served as a Ukrainian minister and now leads the Kyiv School of Economics, stated that Washington’s original proposal threatened Ukraine’s sovereignty and risked economic downfall. However, he observed that the US has adjusted its stance, presenting a fairer agreement centered on joint ownership, without making claims on past assistance. He believes this revised approach could eventually advantage Ukraine.
Trump has emphasized the financial aspect, stating on Tuesday that the US has provided between $300 billion and $350 billion in aid to Ukraine and that a minerals deal could help recover these funds. However, the Kiel Institute, a German think tank, estimates that actual US assistance amounts to $119 billion.
Does the Agreement Include Security Guarantees?
An important issue for Zelensky has been the insertion of clear security assurances from the US. On Wednesday, he confirmed that these guarantees had not been obtained.
“Including a provision on security guarantees for Ukraine was essential,” Zelensky commented.
When asked whether he would abandon the agreement if security assurances were not provided, he responded: “I want to secure a NATO path or something similar. Without security guarantees, there will be no ceasefire, and nothing will function.”
Although there are no explicit security commitments, the agreement contains language expressing US support for Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees to secure enduring peace.
Zelensky maintained that Ukraine would not finalize the agreement until he and Trump reached an understanding on security assurances and determined how to integrate them into the preliminary deal. Trump, however, downplayed the idea of direct US security guarantees, stating that such responsibilities should now be shouldered by Europe. He added that the presence of American workers in Ukraine would offer “automatic security.”
The concept of a minerals agreement was originally introduced by Zelensky as a means to provide the US with a tangible incentive to continue supporting Ukraine. Trump has suggested that, in exchange for mineral access, Ukraine would secure the “right to continue fighting” and that the US would keep supplying military equipment and ammunition “until a deal with Russia is reached.”
The US president has also claimed that Russia is open to allowing European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has dismissed this possibility.
When Will the Agreement Be Signed?
Trump initially stated that the deal would be signed at Friday’s White House meeting. While Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal confirmed that a final version of the agreement had been prepared, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, clarified that only a framework agreement was set to be signed.
Ultimately, no agreement was signed. Instead, the gathering turned into a clash between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. During the heated exchange, Trump accused Zelensky of not showing enough gratitude for US support and cautioned him against “risking World War Three.”
“You need to make a deal, or we’re out,” Trump reportedly told Zelensky. “You don’t have the leverage.”
Zelensky countered by asserting that there could be “no compromises” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Shortly afterward—well ahead of schedule—Zelensky left the White House. The White House then announced that the deal had not been finalized, with Trump himself canceling the signing ceremony.
Trump later shared on Truth Social, accusing Zelensky of having “disrespected the US in its esteemed Oval Office” and declaring: “He can return when he is prepared for peace.”
At this point, it remains unclear whether or when the agreement will be signed.
Ukraine’s Abundance of Minerals
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine holds around 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials.” This includes approximately 19 million metric tons of confirmed graphite reserves, placing Ukraine among the top five global suppliers of this mineral, which is crucial for electric vehicle battery production.
Moreover, Ukraine boasts substantial quantities of titanium and lithium. The nation also asserts it has considerable reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals crucial for military applications, wind turbines, and electronic gadgets—although some experts question the precise extent of these reserves.
Complicating matters further, some of Ukraine’s mineral-rich territories are currently under Russian control. According to Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, mineral deposits worth an estimated $350 billion remain in Russian-occupied areas.
Another obstacle to mineral extraction is the widespread presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that around 25% of Ukraine’s landmass is contaminated, particularly in the war-torn eastern regions.
Time is another concern. Even if the agreement is completed, it might be years before the extraction and export of these resources produce measurable economic gains.
“These resources are not sitting in a warehouse waiting for shipment—they must be developed,” Mylovanov explained. “If the US invests, it could ultimately benefit all parties.”
How Has Russia Reacted?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to comment on the reported details of the US-Ukraine deal. However, on Monday, he told Russian state television that Moscow is prepared to “offer” mineral resources to American companies for joint ventures, including mining in Russia’s “new territories”—a reference to occupied areas of eastern Ukraine.
Putin dismissed the potential US-Ukraine deal as insignificant, stating that Russia “undoubtedly has, I want to emphasize, significantly more of these resources than Ukraine.”
“Regarding the new territories, we are prepared to welcome foreign collaborators for the development of these areas, which have rejoined the Russian Federation,” he added.
In the meantime, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated on Tuesday that the circumstances are still evolving: “Whether [Ukraine and the US] will finalize this agreement or something else, remains to be seen. No official announcements have been made on this issue yet.”
