Following the rapid overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by Islamist rebels, Syria continues to face significant instability. The interim administration, under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, is struggling with increasing security issues, such as fierce resistance from Assad’s remaining supporters. Although the fall of Assad’s repressive regime was a pivotal moment in Syria’s 13-year conflict, achieving lasting peace remains a complex challenge.
The transitional administration, mainly made up of individuals who gained recognition from opposition hubs such as Idlib in the northwest, has taken over a fragmented nation ravaged by prolonged conflict. The dismantling of Assad-era institutions, including the military and the Baath Party, has resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of former regime officials and allies. A significant number of these individuals have declined to make peace with the new administration, sparking unrest that jeopardizes the stability of the delicate government.
A persistent danger from Assad supporters
A lingering threat from Assad loyalists
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recently highlighted a fatal ambush in the province of Latakia, where gunmen attacked government troops trying to detain a former Assad official. This assault resulted in the deaths of at least 13 security members and sparked a surge of violence throughout the area. By the next day, confrontations had intensified, leading to more than 120 fatalities—a clear indication of the difficulties confronting the interim administration.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recently reported a deadly ambush in Latakia province, where gunmen targeted government forces attempting to apprehend a former Assad official. The attack left at least 13 security personnel dead and set off a wave of violence across the region. By the following day, clashes had escalated, resulting in over 120 deaths—a stark reminder of the challenges facing the interim government.
The Institute for the Study of War, a research organization, has warned that Assad loyalists are likely to form some of the most effective insurgent cells in Syria. Their familiarity with military tactics and their ability to utilize established networks give them a strategic advantage in coordinating attacks against the new government. For interim President Sharaa, this growing insurgency represents the most significant obstacle to consolidating authority and ensuring national security.
Rising tensions in Alawite regions
Recent accounts of aggression toward Alawite communities have heightened these tensions. Activists have alleged that armed groups associated with the government have killed numerous male residents in Alawite regions, an allegation yet to be independently confirmed but has nevertheless incited anger. These occurrences could potentially push more Alawites toward joining insurgent factions, complicating the government’s attempts to stabilize the area.
The scenario in Syria’s southern areas also remains unstable. Although an agreement with Druze forces was secured earlier this week to reduce hostilities, the government still encounters resistance from multiple factions nationwide. With distinct regions overseen by rival groups supported by external powers, the interim administration’s control is both constrained and divided.
The upcoming economic and diplomatic hurdles
Apart from the pressing security challenges, Syria’s transitional leadership faces a severe economic crisis. Years of conflict have resulted in nine out of ten Syrians living in poverty, with the nation still enduring harsh international sanctions imposed during Assad’s era. Sharaa’s administration has prioritized the removal of these sanctions, seeing it as crucial for economic recovery and securing legitimacy internationally.
Nevertheless, Western countries remain cautious about Sharaa’s motives, with some doubting that the new government can genuinely abandon the repressive methods of the Assad period. This skepticism has hindered attempts to gain international backing, placing Syria’s economy in a vulnerable state. The interim administration’s capacity to rejuvenate the nation will hinge on its effectiveness in tackling both domestic security issues and foreign diplomatic obstacles.
A nation split
Even after Assad’s downfall, Syria is still a mosaic of rival factions and foreign influences. The transitional administration’s authority is far from comprehensive, as various groups dominate different regions of the nation. These factions, frequently supported by external powers with conflicting agendas, contribute an additional layer of intricacy to Syria’s delicate political environment.
For Sharaa, unifying the nation involves both gaining the people’s trust and overcoming the insurgent threat. His administration has urged former Assad security members to lay down arms and seek reconciliation, yet advancements have been sluggish. “We are monitoring everyone, but do not wish to give the impression of pursuing them,” stated a senior official in the transitional government. This careful strategy illustrates the delicate equilibrium the new leadership needs to maintain in their effort to restore order while avoiding the alienation of important population segments.
For Sharaa, the task of unifying the country is as much about earning the trust of its people as it is about overcoming the insurgent threat. His administration has called on former members of Assad’s security forces to surrender their weapons and accept reconciliation, but progress has been slow. “We are keeping an eye on everyone, but we don’t want to create the impression that we are hunting them down,” said a high-ranking official in the transitional government. This cautious approach reflects the delicate balance the new leadership must strike as it attempts to restore order without alienating key segments of the population.
The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad represented a crucial shift in Syria’s history, yet the nation’s journey toward peace and stability is still laden with challenges. From the insurgent dangers posed by Assad supporters to the profound rifts among Syria’s religious and ethnic groups, the journey forward is unpredictable. The interim administration must tackle these hurdles while attending to the urgent needs of a populace ravaged by over ten years of conflict.
Simultaneously, Syria’s leadership encounters increasing global scrutiny as they work to remove sanctions and gain the support necessary to reconstruct the nation. For the interim government, success will hinge on its capability to tackle the underlying causes of unrest, promote inclusivity, and show a sincere commitment to moving away from the authoritarian practices of the past.
At the same time, Syria’s leaders face mounting international scrutiny as they seek to lift sanctions and secure the support needed to rebuild the country. For the transitional government, success will depend on its ability to address the root causes of unrest, foster inclusivity, and demonstrate a genuine commitment to breaking from the authoritarian practices of the past.
As clashes continue and tensions rise, Syria’s future hangs in the balance. The coming months will be critical for Sharaa’s government as it works to consolidate power, restore security, and lay the foundation for a more stable and prosperous nation.
