Holiday cheer may cost a little more this year as global trade tensions drive up the price of artificial Christmas trees and festive decorations across the United States. Importers and retailers are preparing for a season marked by rising costs, limited supply, and cautious consumer spending as tariffs reshape the holiday marketplace.
Rising costs cast a shadow over holiday decor
Artificial Christmas trees, a staple in many households, are expected to cost between 10% and 20% more than last year. The surge stems largely from tariffs placed on imported goods, with decorative lights seeing the steepest increases — in some cases up to 63%. Because mass-market Christmas décor has long been manufactured overseas, these tariffs have created a ripple effect throughout the industry.
Manufacturing such products domestically is not a feasible solution for most companies. The high cost of setting up production facilities, purchasing massive equipment, and training workers would drastically increase retail prices. According to Mac Harman, founder and CEO of Balsam Hill, producing trees in the United States could push the price of an $800 tree to nearly $3,000.
The apparatus necessary for manufacturing artificial trees can occupy an area equivalent to a football field, Harman stated, pointing out that a significant portion of the machinery is stationary and not readily movable. Furthermore, pre-lit trees — the preferred choice for many buyers — demand considerable manual effort to install the lights, a task usually performed by hand by experienced laborers in Asia.
A global supply chain under strain
For decades, countries like Thailand and China have dominated the production of Christmas decorations. Today, around 90% of the world’s mass-market holiday décor originates in China. Yet that dominance has come under pressure as U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods continue to rise.
Anticipating these challenges, Balsam Hill began diversifying its supply chain after the 2016 presidential election, shifting part of its production to other countries. Harman estimates that roughly one-third of the company’s products now come from outside China. Even with these changes, tariffs ranging from 20% to 30% have added considerable costs, forcing many importers to reduce inventory to manage expenses.
The overall supply of artificial trees in the United States is projected to decline by about 15% this year, which could limit choices for shoppers who wait until later in the season. Major retailers like Costco have also scaled back their holiday décor categories, with CEO Ron Vachris acknowledging that the company has “thinned down” its offerings in light of uncertain trade conditions.
Despite these challenges, the National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates a strong retail period. Overall holiday expenditures in the U.S. are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the inaugural time, with the typical shopper intending to allocate around $270 towards non-gift purchases like decorations, gift wrap, and greeting cards.
Live trees remain untouched by tariffs
Although the cost of artificial trees keeps rising, the prices of real trees are projected to stay stable. The majority of natural Christmas trees purchased in the U.S. are cultivated within the country, and those brought in from Canada are not subject to tariffs due to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact. This safeguard is in place even with the imposition of new duties on Canadian timber entering the nation.
Based on information from the Real Christmas Tree Board, a survey revealed that 84% of cultivators do not intend to increase their prices this year. Marsha Gray, the executive director of the board, highlighted the robust standing of live tree growers, noting their substantial stock and thriving harvests. She remarked, “We are among the select industries that can confidently state we are not concerned with tariffs.”
Given that a Christmas tree takes nearly a decade to mature, the live tree supply remains insulated from short-term economic shifts. Gray noted that current stock levels are the strongest seen in over ten years, ensuring that families who prefer the scent and tradition of a real tree will have plenty of options at stable prices.
Holiday optimism amid economic uncertainty
Even with tariffs and worldwide supply chain disruptions impacting the cost of artificial trees, consumer attitudes are holding remarkably firm. The NRF anticipates that numerous households will modify their purchasing behaviors instead of completely foregoing purchases, with some choosing more compact trees or fewer ornaments while still preserving the holiday cheer.
Retail experts also note that early shopping trends suggest Americans are planning ahead to avoid last-minute shortages. “Every year, no matter the challenges, the holiday season finds its rhythm,” said NRF President Matthew Shay. “People save for it, plan for it, and make it a priority.”
In the end, while tariffs may make Christmas a bit more expensive for those who prefer the convenience of an artificial tree, the enduring appeal of holiday traditions continues to shine through. Whether it’s the warm glow of string lights or the fresh scent of pine, families across the country are preparing to celebrate — proving that even economic hurdles can’t dampen the holiday spirit.
